The Pennsylvania State University

                                                       Department of Economics

 

Economics 472                                                                                       Professor Barry W. Ickes

Economics of Transition                                                                                              Spring 2007

 

Office:                         618 Kern Graduate Bldg.

            Office Hours:              Tuesday 10-11, Wednesday 10-11

 

Introduction

 

            With the demise of communism in Central and Eastern Europe, former socialist economies are in the process of transition from centrally-planned to market economies.  Transition is a comprehensive change, involving all aspects of the economy, including labor markets, capital markets, and the organization of industry, especially privatization.  The focus of this course is on the experience of economies in transition and the problems encountered.  Special emphasis will be given to the experience of Russia and the other countries of the former Soviet Union.  In addition to Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, we will also examine the experience of China.

 

            The (optional) textbook for this course is Daniel Gros and Alfred Steinherr, Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe (GS).[a]  Most of the readings will be on the website, and I will put some of my lecture notes there as well.

 

            Important articles are listed below and are available on the web at the site for this course: http://econ.la.psu.edu/~bickes/econ372home.htm. Materials will be added to the web list periodically, so you should check it for new items. The website for the course is crucial not only for readings but for class announcements, and updates to the syllabus. These will happen periodically. You should bookmark the website and get used to surfing it.

 

 

Course Issues and Philosophy

 

            It is useful to make clear at the start some issues of teaching philosophy. As you will learn, I find this material very interesting. My goal is to make you find it interesting. I enjoy the material and am very enthusiastic about it. I will try hard to convey why this is interesting and important. There are costs to this approach, however. This is not material that has been taught so many times that it practically runs by itself. There is no autopilot in this course. This means that that you will have to work. You won’t do well if you are not prepared to work hard and think. I am not, however, a monitor. I will not enforce you to supply effort. I expect that you will put in the effort to learn. But it is up to you.

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            This course is clearly not just theory, and the connection with real world events will be evident. This means that the material is dynamic. Events will upset the order of the topics. And, as new developments occur I will restructure the plan. The syllabus is only a rough guide to what we will do each week. If you desire lots of structure you are in the wrong course. I cannot emphasize this enough. I must also point out that the exams are not multiple choice. Past exams are available on the website. Examine them now. If you don’t like such exams I suggest that you take appropriate action now.

 

            Attendance in this course accounts for 5%. This is a somewhat small (though not insignificant) direct contribution to your grade. The indirect contribution, however, is much larger. One reason is that the lectures do not repeat what is in the book. They are complements, not substitutes (what point would there be to the lectures, otherwise). Past experience suggests that students who do not attend class typically fail exams and drop out. [b]  Perhaps you can be the exception. In any event, there will be a seating chart, and I will record attendance.

 

         Even though attendance will be recorded, it is still a choice left up to you, tardiness, however, is not. Showing up late to class not only demonstrates a lack of respect to the instructor, it is also shows a lack of respect to other students. It is disruptive to lectures. It is a negative externality that is dumped on your fellow students. It is not fair to other students to show up late. Better not to show up at all than to show up late (unless you have a good excuse). Of course, it is best to show up on time. You are all too civilized to dump your garbage on your neighbor’s lawn or car. Extend this courtesy to fellow students.

 

 

Course Requirements

 

            There will be two midterms and a final exam.  The weight for each midterm will be about 30%. The final will be worth approximately 40%.  The dates of the midterms will be announced. They will be held in class. The exams will not be multiple choice, and bluebooks will be required for the midterms and final. Review questions will be posted on the website (past sets are already there).

 

            Administrative matters will be announced on the website for the course. Additional reading materials and review questions will also be placed there.

 

Prerequisites: Econ 2 or Econ 4 or Econ 14.

 

 

Course Outline

 

            The list of topics will resemble the following outline. This is a plan not a blueprint. We may take detours from time to time. Updates will appear on the course website. If you need a week-by-week detailed plan of readings this is not the course for you.

 

1.         Introduction: The Meaning of Transition

 

Lecture Note, Introduction to Transition

GS, chapter 1

 

2.         The Legacy of Central Planning

a.         The Mechanism and Logic of Central Planning

b.         The Economic Structure of Soviet-type Economies

c.         The Collapse of Central Planning

 

GS, Chapter 2

Lecture Note on Legacies of Central Planning

Lecture Note on Collapse of Central Planning

Grossman, Gregory, “Notes for a Theory of the Command Economy,” Soviet Studies, XV, 2, October 1963:101-123.

Ericson, Richard, "The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall, 1991. (need to be logged on from PSU)

Ickes, Barry W., “Dimensions of Transition in Russia” in The Russian Economy in the 1990's, B. Granville and P. Oppenheimer, eds., Oxford University Press. (web)

Ofer, Gur, "Soviet Economic Growth: 1928-1985," Journal of Economic Literature,  December 1987. (need to be logged on from PSU)

 

3.         How to Organize Transition

a.         Gradual versus Comprehensive Reform, “Shock Therapy” versus Gradualism

 

GS, chapter 3, 6.

Fischer, S. and A. Gelb, “The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall, 1991. (web)

Sachs, Jeffrey D., and David Lipton, “Creating a Market Economy in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1990:1.

Murphy, Kevin, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny, “The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 3. (Aug., 1992), pp. 889-906.

                                                                       

            b.         Liberalization: Internal and External

 

Lecture Note on Liberalization and Price Liberalization

 

c.         Transition and Structural Change, Investment is Transition

 

 

[first midterm about here]

 

4.         Macroeconomic Stabilization in Transition Economies

 

a.         The Legacy of macroeconomic imbalances

 

GS, chapter 3.

                                               

b.         The Record of Stabilization in Transition Economies

 

c.         Why Has Output Fallen in Transition

 

Lecture Note on the Output Fall

GS, chapter 7

Sachs, Jeffrey D., “Russia’s Struggle with Stabilization,” Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, World Bank, 1994.

Fischer, Stanley and Ratna Sahay, “The Transition Economies After Ten Years.”

Elisabetta Falcetti, Martin Raiser and Peter Sanfey, “Defying the Odds: Initial Conditions, Reforms and Growth in the First Decade of Transition.” (Web)

 

5.         Privatization

a.         The Firm in Transition

b.         Alternative Plans of Privatization

i.          Spontaneous Privatization

ii.         Mass Privatization

(1)        Voucher Privatization in the Czech Republic and Russia

(2)        Privatization via Liquidation in Poland

                                   

Lecture Note on Privatization

Brada, J.C., “Privatization Is Transition -- Or is it?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 2, Spring 1996: 67-86. (web)

Megginson, W., and J. Netter, “From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 39, No. 2, June 2001. (web)          

Djankov, S. and P. Murrell, “Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey.”

                       

 

6.         Restructuring, Ownership Change, and Improvements in Performance

 

a.         Creating Markets for Corporate Control in Planned Economies        

 

           

            Berglof, E., and P. Bolton, “The Great Divide and Beyond: Financial Architecture in Transition,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 16, 1, Winter 2002: 77-100.       

                                   

b.         Restructuring

 

Gaddy, Clifford and Barry W. Ickes, “To Restructure or Not to Restructure: Informal Activities and Enterprise Behavior in

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Transition.” (web)

Commander, Dutz, and Stern, “Restructuring in Transition Economies: Ownership, Competition and Regulation.” (web)

 

c.   Russia’s Virtual Economy

 

Gaddy, Clifford and Barry W. Ickes, “Russia’s Virtual Economy,” Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 1998. (web)

GS, chapter 8.

 

[second midterm about here]

                                   

7.         Institutional Development and Transition

 

Timothy Frye and Andrei Shleifer, “The Invisible Hand and the Grabbing Hand,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. 2, (May, 1997), pp. 354-358. (web)

Joseph Stiglitz, "Whither Reform: Ten Years of Transition." (web)

Roland, G., “The Political Economy of Transition,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2002, 29-51.

 

8.         The Record on Transition

a.         A Comparative Analysis of the Transition Record

b.         Poverty, living standards, inequality

 

GS, chapter 4-5,

Svejnar, Jan, “Transition Economies: Performances and Challenges,”           

Guriev and Ickes, Microeconomic Aspects of Economic Growth in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union  (web)

 

c.         China

 

Lecture Note on China

Qian, Yingyi, “How Reform Worked in China,” in Dani Rodrik, editor, In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, 2003, pp. 297-333.

Sachs, Jeffrey D., and Wing Thye Woo,  Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe, and the Former Soviet Union,” Economic Policy, Vol. 18, April 1994.

 

9.         Conclusions

 

            Lecture Note  


                                                                       

Valid Excuses

 

During the course many possible events may occur that would result in your inability to attend class, attend exams, or perform at a minimally acceptable level during an examination.  Illness or injury, family emergencies, certain University-approved curricular and extra-curricular activities, and religious holidays can be legitimate reasons to miss class or to be excused from a scheduled examination.

 

In the case of your own illness or injury, a note from a physician, physician’s assistant, or a nurse-practitioner that says, among other things, “...unable to attend” is required.  The words “unable to attend” must be precisely stated in the note. If the note leaves any ambiguity on this point you will not be excused.  Be advised that University Health Services cannot provide such verification unless treatment is rendered by them and in their judgment the verification is medically justified (their verification policy can be accessed at http://www.sa.psu.edu/ja/PoliciesRules.pdf, page 38).  Further, the note must be provided to the instructor within one week of the missed course event (in cases of extended illness or incapacity, the note must be provided within a week of the end of your illness or incapacity, and it should specify the period of your inability to attend the course).

 

With regard to family emergencies, you must provide verifiable documentation of the emergency.  Given the vast array of family emergencies the instructor will provide precise guidance as to what constitutes adequate documentation.  Unless the emergency is critical you should notify the instructor in advance of your absence from the scheduled course event.  In cases of critical emergencies, you must notify the instructor within one week of your absence.

 

For University-approved curricular and extra-curricular activities, verifiable documentation is also required.  The student should obtain from the unit or department sponsoring the activity a letter (or class absence form) indicating the anticipated absence(s).  The letter must be presented to the instructor at least one week prior to the first absence.

 

In the case of religious holidays, the student should notify the instructor by the third week of the course of any potential conflicts.

                                               

 

                                                                                   

 



[a] Students sometimes ask me “what does it mean for a book to be optional?” Basically, everything is optional. Studying is optional. I cannot require you to do anything. Your decision is based on your knowledge of the material, yourself-confidence in learning, and your interest in the subject. The more interested you are the more you want to learn, and that means more reading.

[b] This does not really explain why I give points for attendance. After all, aren’t the costs of absenteeism internalized (i.e., via a low grade)? The problem is not that students who fail to attend lectures do poorly on exams. It is that students who fail to attend lectures and then do poorly on exams then pose an extra burden (on me) later in the course (pleading for extra credit, trying to learn in 3 weeks what they should have learned over 12 weeks, etc.). This makes paternalism a potentially optimal social policy